When I walk through neighbourhoods these days, I sense a quiet optimism mixed with a dose of hesitation. Buyers are poking around again. Sellers are testing the waters, sometimes a little too optimistically. And behind it all, the big economic forces — interest rates, supply, and sentiment — are still shaping how the market feels day to day.

Let’s take a closer look at what’s happening right now — the numbers, what we’re seeing on the ground, and what’s likely ahead.

 

What the Numbers Say (and What They Don’t)

In September, GTA home sales rose about 2% over August, reaching one of the highest sales levels since the start of the year. It’s a sign that activity is stabilizing — not booming, but holding steady.

That said, the average home price continued to edge down, now sitting around $971,500 — roughly 5.5% lower than last year. New listings have been outpacing sales, which means more choice for buyers and a bit more competition for sellers.

The condo market continues to face more pressure than freeholds. Sales are down roughly 20% compared to this time last year, while active listings are up nearly 40%. Average condo prices have dipped about 6%, which is creating some good opportunities for first-time buyers and investors who’ve been waiting for a better entry point.

The takeaway? We’re in a market that’s finding its footing. Prices are softening, supply is building, but demand hasn’t disappeared — it’s just more cautious.

 

On-the-Ground Reality

For Buyers

Buyers are walking into open houses with more confidence these days. They’re asking tough questions, taking their time, and negotiating harder. Homes that are priced right and show well still move, but buyers aren’t afraid to walk away if something doesn’t feel right.

For the first time in a long time, buyers have some leverage — especially in the condo and mid-tier segments. Many are waiting to see if rates come down further, but those who are ready to act are finding more value and less competition.

For Sellers

For sellers, the key right now is strategy. Pricing high and “seeing what happens” isn’t working. There’s simply too much choice on the market.

Homes that are clean, staged, and priced in line with current data are still selling — and often quickly. But those that cling to last year’s numbers are sitting. Presentation, pricing, and flexibility on closing dates matter more than ever.

As one agent recently said to me, “The market’s forgiving of good houses — but not of bad pricing.” I couldn’t agree more.

 

What’s Ahead

Interest Rates

The Bank of Canada has started easing rates slightly, and that’s giving some buyers confidence to re-enter the market. Further rate cuts could unlock more demand, but the pace will depend on inflation data. If rates continue trending down into 2026, we could see a modest recovery in both activity and prices.

Supply and Confidence

Inventory levels are likely to remain elevated through the winter. That should keep prices in check and make conditions more balanced heading into next spring. But if consumer confidence strengthens — and borrowing costs ease — we could see a stronger start to 2026.

The Long View

Toronto’s fundamentals remain strong. Population growth, limited land, and steady immigration will continue to support long-term demand. We may just be in a period of recalibration before the next growth cycle begins.

 

My Advice

For Buyers:

Don’t wait for the “perfect” bottom of the market — no one times it perfectly. If you find the right home, in the right area, at a price that fits your budget, it’s worth considering. Just make sure you’re factoring in carrying costs, potential rate changes, and a buffer for the unexpected.

For Sellers:

Be realistic and proactive. Price with strategy, not emotion. Work with an agent who’s tuned into local trends and can help you position your home properly. The days of easy bidding wars are behind us — today’s market rewards preparation and presentation.

For Investors:

The condo market may offer some opportunities, but choose carefully. Focus on properties with strong rental potential or upside through renovation and repositioning.

If I had to sum it up: we’re not in panic mode, but we’re also not riding a seller’s market wave. The market now rewards precision, timing, and good advice.