If you’ve been thinking about moving, you may be wondering whether the market is working in your favour.
Home prices are lower than a year ago, but many people are still taking their time. And while fewer homes are coming onto the market, that hasn’t been enough to push prices higher.
September’s real estate numbers help explain why. They also highlight something worth remembering: understanding your own situation is more useful than trying to predict the perfect time to move.
A quick look at September’s numbers
According to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board, September 2026 brought:
- 5,040 home sales, down 9% from September 2025.
- 16,500 new listings, down 14.4%.
- An average selling price of $1,006,409, down 5.1%.
- A benchmark home price decline of 4.7%, a measure that tracks price changes for typical homes.
TRREB reported that uncertainty around the economy, inflation and borrowing costs continued to weigh on buying decisions. After accounting for normal seasonal patterns, sales, new listings and both price measures were also lower than in August. Source: TRREB’s September market release.
So, how does that translate to your plans?
Fewer new listings don’t automatically mean more competition
It’s easy to assume that fewer homes being listed will lead to bidding wars and higher prices. But that depends on how many people are ready to buy—and how many homes are already available.
New listings count the properties entering the market during the month. They don’t tell us how many previously listed homes are still waiting for a buyer.
Think of your own home search. Even if fewer properties were listed this week, you might still have several good options left from earlier weeks.
That’s why the most useful question is more specific: how much choice is there for the kind of home you want, in the neighbourhood you’re considering?
The same applies when selling. Your competition is the group of homes a buyer could reasonably choose instead of yours. Their prices, condition and features help shape how your property will be viewed.
The average price isn’t a valuation of your home
A 5.1% decline in the GTA’s average selling price doesn’t mean every home lost 5.1% of its value.
The average includes different property types, neighbourhoods and price ranges. It can also change depending on which homes happened to sell that month.
The benchmark helps account for those differences by tracking typical homes. With both measures below last year’s levels, September’s figures point to softer pricing across the region.
But neither number tells you exactly what a particular home could sell for.
For a property in Erin Mills, Sheridan or South Mississauga, a more useful starting point is recent sales of similar homes nearby. From there, we can consider condition, updates, lot size and the alternatives currently available.
Use the regional numbers for context. Use local comparisons to make decisions.
A quieter market makes preparation more valuable
With sales below last year’s level, it makes sense to plan carefully around price, timing and the terms of a potential offer.
If you’re preparing to list, look at your home through a buyer’s eyes. How does it compare with other available properties? Are there small repairs or presentation improvements that would help? Does the asking price reflect recent sales?
An ambitious asking price needs evidence to support it. Buyers can compare your property with other options, and a price based mainly on what you hope to receive may be difficult to defend.
When purchasing, there may be room to discuss price, conditions or closing dates, depending on the property. Understanding the available alternatives helps you recognize whether a home offers good value and where negotiation may be possible.
Buying and selling? Pay attention to the price gap
When you’re selling one home and buying another, focusing only on your sale price can hide part of the picture.
Here’s a simple illustration.
Suppose your current home could previously have sold for $1 million, while the home you wanted cost $1.4 million. The difference was $400,000.
If both values were 5% lower, your sale would be $950,000 and your purchase would be $1.33 million. The difference would shrink to $380,000.
You would receive less for your current home, but the gap to the next one would also be smaller.
This is an example, rather than a prediction. Different homes and neighbourhoods rarely change at exactly the same rate. Still, it shows why looking at both sides of a move can be more helpful than judging the market by your selling price alone.
Financing, transaction costs and your new monthly expenses also need to fit comfortably within the plan.
Start with the questions that affect your move
You don’t need to know where the entire market is heading to understand your options. Start with these three questions:
- What could my current home realistically sell for today?
- What would a suitable next home cost in the area I want?
- Would the overall cost and timing work for my household?
The answers may reveal an opportunity worth exploring. They may also help you decide what needs to happen before you’re ready.
September’s numbers show a cautious market, but your next step depends on the homes, neighbourhoods and costs involved in your own move.
Thinking about making a change? I’d be happy to help you compare your home’s likely selling range with the options available for your next purchase. Together, we can put the numbers into perspective and work out what makes sense for you.
